SYSTEM ANALYSIS IN DEPENDABILITY AND SAFETY
Aim. For the purpose of improving the reliability of decisions regarding the uniformity of distributions over samples of limited size, a combinatorial method has been developed for defining a criterion based on simple combinations of sample values. Methods. The paper uses methods of the probability theory, mathematical statistics, and combinatorics. Results. The proposed criterion is highly efficient for distinguishing small samples when testing statistically similar hypotheses, such as the hypothesis of a uniform distribution law and the hypothesis of a beta distribution of the first kind. Conclusions. The approach proposed in the paper enables a sequential analysis procedure (detection of process “imbalance”). This procedure makes it possible to reliably detect the “imbalance” (deviation of the distribution of observations from the uniform law) of a process with a practically sufficient intensity using recurrent relations.
Aim. The consistency of a collectively generated body of knowledge is one of the most difficult problems of artificial intelligence. Additionally, there is a very important aspect of the knowledge acquisition process, i.e., the availability of knowledge support tools. Within the overall scheme of operation of knowledge system maintenance procedures, those associated with ensuring the consistency of interrelated components hold a special place. Out of the lines of knowledge representation research, the study of the operating procedures of corporate knowledge systems stood out. One of its most unconquered challenges is finding an optimal structure for the interoperability of knowledge system components. Let us consider a set of n elements that represent agents, information systems or knowledge components, then we can set the goal of assessing the level of interoperability and present the structure of interoperability based on an analysis of preferred relationships between elements. Methods. Thus, the effect of the structure of interacting elements on the motivation for interoperability is to be taken into account based on certain features or characteristics in the structure of elements that contribute or hinder the achievement of interoperability. It was noted that the potential for establishing interoperability based on a structure of interrelated elements can be defined as structural interoperability. Accordingly, for the purpose of studying the tendency of information systems or elements to be interoperable depending on the correlation of their own features or characteristics, a structural correspondence methodology was proposed that allows evaluating groups of potentially close elements using the structural consistency apparatus. Modelling structural interoperability based on the analysis of the connections structure using the selected consistency criterion allows finding the consistent preimage that is the closest to the original set. The subsets of the found preimage indicate the preferred grouping of elements that enables interoperability with the least inconsistency. Results. As a result, the set of potentially interacting elements is divided into sets of elements motivated to interact. This paper proposes and justifies an algorithm for finding – for a random structure of elements – the closest consistent structure that allows concluding on the choice of the interoperability structure. Conclusions. Out of the analysis of the proposed algorithm and its alternative follows that, under defined conditions for the existence of structural interoperability, there are several options for an acceptable interoperability structure. However, finding the optimal option will require searching through all acceptable options, or using reasonable heuristics that take into account the specifics of the connectivity matrix of the original signed graph. Comparing the presented algorithms, it must be noted that the label propagation algorithm is evaluative in its nature. Meanwhile, despite the complexity of combinatorial estimates and transformations, the inconsistency reduction algorithm based on the vertex-to-vertex difference vector is a tool for permanent analysis and managing the consistency of sets of elements motivated for interoperability.
Developing a project planning structure for all industries is a technological challenge involving evaluating several restrictions for each activity’s respective task and its planning tools. Any restriction affects the completion time, operating costs, and overall project performance. Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) processes made many researchers study the possible ways of finding the critical paths and activities in the network. The advancement of the CPM and PERT towards a probabilistic environment is still a long way off. However, Artificial intelligence approaches such as the Genetic Algorithm, Dijkstra’s algorithm, and others are utilized for network analysis within the project management framework. This study is to help the project manager plan schedule for a construction project to determine the expected completion time. In this research paper, we describe a method for obtaining the earliest and latest times of a critical path using modified Dijkstra’s algorithm with triangular fuzzy numbers. Forward pass and backward pass algorithms are designed to find the optimal path for the proposed method. Numerical examples are also illustrated for the same. Simulation results are included by the use of the “C” program. Finally, a comparison is made with the traditional method PERT.
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY. THE THEORY AND PRACTICE
Aim. To identify the specificity of error detection as part of self-dual calculations testing by automation devices, as well as to propose a method for organising calculations testing that would allow detecting any malfunctions from the defined model. Methods. The paper used methods of technical diagnostics of discrete systems, Boolean algebra, and combinatorics. Results. The specificity of error detection at the outputs of self-dual digital devices of combination type were analysed. The conditions for detecting and not detecting errors at the outputs of self-dual combinational circuits were formalised. In practice, the latter allow – by analysing potential errors at the outputs – creating fully self-checking circuits. At the same time, it is noted that if full coverage of all errors at the outputs of self-dual circuits cannot be achieved when computing-testing only on the basis of whether a function belongs to the self-dual class, then in some cases that can be made possible through additional checking of whether the generated code vectors belong to a pre-selected redundant code. It is established, what features of actual digital devices enable large numbers of errors compensated for by self-dual testing. It is theoretically determined that, in real practical applications with self-dual computing testing, the larger is the number of input variables, the higher is the probability of not detecting an error due to a larger number of combinations of distortions at the outputs. However, the greater is the number of functions implemented by a device, the higher is the probability of error detection. Nonetheless, in practice, each case of computations testing based on the self-duality of calculated functions should be treated individually for each digital device. The paper presents some experimental results that demonstrate the specificity of error detection at the outputs of self-dual combinational circuits using various circuit design methods based on compressing the signals received from the monitored facilities using modified Hamming codes (Hsiao codes). Conclusion. The conditions for detecting errors at the outputs of self-dual digital devices established in this paper allow practically synthesising self-checking computer systems with improved checkability as compared with conventional approaches to their implementation.
The paper presents an analysis of emergency situation dynamics in the electrical networks of the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia for the period between 2014 and 2021. The software algorithms developed by the authors were used for approximating a series of emergency outages. These algorithms were used to calculate and visualise the examined indicators. Methods of correlation and regression analysis were used to calculate the autoregressive parameters and trend equations used to predict emergency outages. The paper discusses the emergency dynamics modes in the largest Russian grid companies with voltages of 110 kV and above. The authors analyse data on the occurrence of emergency situations in 23 electric grid associations that are part of the UES of Russia for the period between 2014 and 2021. The percentages of accidents at the largest electrical network facilities were determined, taking into account their length, as well as the seasonal characteristics of the territories that the power lines run through. In addition, data on the deterioration of the key network elements, as well as federal investments in the development of the examined company were taken into account. According to the findings, a specific indicator that depends on the length of the networks and the quality of maintenance organization should be regarded as the most reliable assessment of the actual state of faulty electrical networks. An assessment of the deterioration level of the examined networks showed that the greatest deterioration is observed in PAO Rosseti Ural (Yekaterinburg, Russia) (more than 60%), while the lowest deterioration is observed in JSC Rosseti Yantar (25%) (Kaliningrad, Russia). When assessing the seasonal component as one of the accident criteria, it was established that the greatest damage occurs in the summer period, i.e., in June, July, and August. It was revealed that the autoregression and trend equations can be used to predict the examined indicators in the short term.
ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫЕ СИСТЕМЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ
Aim. The paper aims to show the relevance of assessing the technical level of UAVs in general, to identify and set forth the specificity of technical level (TL) assessment at the operational stage. Methods. The paper uses the method of systems analysis. Results. The paper shows the role of TL assessment of scout/attack unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as an indicator of their technological excellence, presents the state of the art, methodology and results of UAV TL assessment at all life cycle stages, key trends in UAV development, identifies the specificity of UAV TL assessment at the design stage for the purpose of maintaining the required level at the operational stage. Conclusions. The paper provides recommendations for structuring indicators that reflect the stability and development of UAVs. If modules are selected according to the required development indicators, the proper technical level of the UAV will be maintained at the operational stage.
Aim. To examine the structure and safety components of existing transportation systems to use them as the foundation for the study of the whole set of hazards and threats that are typical for innovative string rail transportation. To identify specific conditions and functions of efficient and safe movement of rail vehicles in order to enable the definition of the requirements for the automated traffic management system under development. Methods. The authors analyse the regulatory documents dealing with the safety of existing transportation systems, as well as the conditions and functions associated with ensuring the safety of rail vehicles. The paper examines the matter of completeness and correctness of the proposed functions, distinctive features of their implementation required by various standards. Results. The authors propose a set of basic elementary functions of rail vehicle movement that are used for constructing detailed algorithms of operation of a string transportation systems. Comments are given regarding the implemented functionalities. The authors propose a terminology of string transportation system safety and its components interrelation, i.e., operational safety, functional safety, and movement safety. Conclusion. The proposed terminology and set of basic movement safety functions allow organising the development of a modern safe automated traffic management system. The use of elementary incompatible movement safety functions allows for their modular (independent) implementation and minimisation. That helps reduce the efforts associated with the development and confirmation of compliance of the automated management system with the relevant requirements.
Aim. Autonomous and remote-controlled surface sea vessel (ASSV) and unmanned inland water vessels (UIWV) are entering the waterways. The infrastructure of waterways is becoming intelligent. The intellectual level of sea and river ports, port terminals, and harbours is improving. Large-scale deployment of information technologies, automated control, automatic control, and artificial intelligence has significantly expanded the landscape of transportation security threats to water intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and now includes non-physical threats. The evolving threat landscape requires timely response in order to avoid gaps between the current state of intellectual technology application and the set of measures to ensure the transportation security of water ITS. Problems. Spoofing or modifying sensors readings in ASSV (UIWV) or signals received by their executive units can cause vessels to lose direction and collide with each other or with infrastructure facilities, run aground, or even being hijacked along with the passengers, cargo, and attendants. Unauthorized access to information in automated control systems of port terminals can be used to maliciously encrypt information. That may block cargo handling operations in a port, disrupt ship traffic schedules and logistics operations up to the national level. National-level consequences can be classified as a disruption of the national information infrastructure security associated with the transportation insecurity in ITS. The various existing ITS have the common problem associated with the digital inequality of the automated systems employed by industrial enterprises and corporate governance in terms of the security of the above technologies. Methods. Ensuring the transportation security of water ITS requires the application of all available methods, means, and measures of protection. The legal framework of transportation security is to take into account the full range of relevant methods of illegal interference into the operation of water ITS and require planning and implementing a corresponding set of protective measures. The article uses methods of systems analysis and comprehensive security of complex systems. Results. The author analysed the new types of threats to the transportation security of water transportation systems and the corresponding regulatory framework. It was identified that the latter do not take into account the new types of threats to the transportation security of water transportation systems. Consequently, those are not covered by the transportation security planning. The paper examines the architecture of water ITS in the form of an integrated automated system of corporate and process management, whose application aims to dynamically coordinate water ITS models with those of current information-related threats to the transportation security. Conclusion. Ensuring the transportation security of water ITS requires taking into account the new types of threats associated with undocumented capabilities and vulnerabilities of information technologies, automated control, automatic control, and artificial intelligence technologies. The examined problems are of a systemic nature, since illegal interference in the operation of water ITS can negatively affect other systems of critical information infrastructure. That should be taken into account when developing regulations related to ensuring the transportation security of water and other modes of transportation.