ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF FACTORS ON DAMAGE CAUSED BY TRANSPORT ACCIDENTS USING REGRESSION MODELS
https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2013-0-2-126-144
Abstract
The paper analyzes accidents on transport. It offers to use regression analysis methods to analyze the impact of various factors on traffic safety. The authors propose to apply a model of the dependence of damages caused by transport accidents on a set of negative factors that influence its occurrence. A nonlinear regression model with discontinuity is applied for construction of the model. The model is constructed to obtain data on actual or predictable levels of train traffic safety. These data are necessary to assess the adequacy of measures aimed at ensuring the standard safety level to minimize the resources allocated to the tasks of safe train operations, including justification of priorities in the allocation of resources. In the paper, we consider two examples. The first example shows the results of calculations based on real data about accidents on the USA railways. The second example is constructed using the results of computational simulation of the degree of damage and factors.
About the Authors
A. V. Goryainov
Moscow Aviation Institute
Russian Federation
PhD, associate professor
Russian Federation
PhD, associate professor
A. M. Zamyshlyaev
JSC NIIAS
Russian Federation
PhD in engineering, head of scientific and technical complex
Russian Federation
PhD in engineering, head of scientific and technical complex
E. N. Platonov
Moscow Aviation Institute
Russian Federation
PhD, associate professor
Russian Federation
PhD, associate professor
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Review
For citations:
Goryainov A.V., Zamyshlyaev A.M., Platonov E.N. ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF FACTORS ON DAMAGE CAUSED BY TRANSPORT ACCIDENTS USING REGRESSION MODELS. Dependability. 2013;(2):126-144. https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2013-0-2-126-144
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ISSN 1729-2646 (Print)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
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