The effect of climate change on the functional reliability of motor transport networks

Aim. The paper examines the matter of accounting for the effect of climate change on the functional reliability of regional road networks. An algorithm and method for assessing the functional reliability of a road are proposed that are based on assessing the durability and residual life of the road surface structure according to deformation criteria: (1) the maximum permissible residual deflection of the road surface, (2) the decrease of the deformation modulus of the road surface material as a result of multiple elastic-plastic deformation of the road surface caused by traffic, (3) the emergence of unacceptable longitudinal potholes. Methods. The mathematical model of a road network in the form of a Bayesian network allows simulating (1) climate/weather conditions, (2) real-time traffic following an accident using an agent-based model that uses traffic information accumulated through continuous monitoring (including surveillance cameras and drones), travel time of each vehicle, and traffic volume on each road. For the purpose of identifying the probability of failure of each section of the road network, a method was developed for determining the initial reliability that takes into account the effect of various factors of destruction of the road surface structure. The reliability of the selected transport network and the PoF of each of its sections were calculated using a Bayesian network, and the residual life of each road section was calculated based on deformation criteria. Results. A comparative analysis of the vulnerability of the road network of the Yekaterinburg-Tyumen route (Ural Federal District) for both passenger and freight transport was conducted, both taking into account the climate trends of the Middle Urals and otherwise, using the example of a traffic accident that resulted in a partial destruction of a single bridge and a redistribution of traffic flows. The identified residual life, the probability of failure-free operation and the reliability of each section of the road network allowed identifying the most vulnerable sections of the road networks of the Ural Federal District, as well as the scope of necessary repair activities. Conclusion. The application of the developed method also showed that the functional reliability of the Yekaterinburg-Tyumen route for regular transport is 99.55% and 98.47% for vehicles with a carrying capacity of over 20 tons. The use of an agent-based model of driver behaviour to assess and analyse the vulnerability of the Yekaterinburg-Tyumen transport network in the event of a bridge failure showed that the extension of the route due to a bridge failure leads to an increase in the carbon footprint of the road network and a negative impact on the environment.

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