Tendencies in the propagation of fires and ammunition explosions at fixed storage facilities

Aim. To suggest an approach to identifying the common features of statistical series containing information on the time, place and external conditions of the development and propagation of emergency situations associated with fires and ammunition explosions at fixed storage facilities, to synthesize the function of partial risk indicator of such situations, i.e., the energy susceptibility to external effects of ammunition storage systems.

Methods. The paper uses methods of mathematical analysis of statistical series and probability theory. For the first time ever, individual external conditions of emergency situations involving ammunition are analysed using statistical series (rate of insolation).

Results. The paper has collected and classified statistical data on emergencies involving fires and explosions in ammunition storage facilities that took place in the current century in a number of countries of the world, whose emergency nature was confirmed by extensive media coverage. Using statistical series analysis, an exponential relationship has been established between the rate of fires and explosions and the total power saturation of the ammunition storage system.

Conclusions. The frequency of emergencies involving fires and explosions depends on the overall power saturation of the storage system that is defined by the solar intensity in the area of the ammunition storage facility that depends on its latitude and season. The suggested approach allows, by analysing empirical data on the time and place of emergencies, identifying the specific survivability values of a hazardous storage facility characterizing the energy susceptibility of the system to the effects that trigger explosions and fires.

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