Aim. The paper uses the Poisson model to analyse failure flows of NPP systems’ elements and thus describes an approach to defining homogeneity groups, i.e., the broadest possible groups of same-type elements whose failure rates may be considered constant. Defining such groups allows aggregating operational data on equipment failures and times-to failure, which improves the quality of statistical estimates of failure rates as part of assessing the dependability of systems made up of highly dependable elements. Methods. For thepurpose of grouping, it is proposed to use the following methods: structural (based on the positional symmetry of the same-type elements in redundant system channels, which allows combining the elements within a system) and statistical (using the results of the statistical test of the homogeneity hypothesis of any combined groups of same-type elements). The structural method was substantiated. The author proposes a statistical test based on the correlation of the estimated variations in the failure rates with and without regard to the assumption of the homogeneity of the aggregated data. The properties of the test were examined; the correlations for the first two moments of its statistics were obtained. It was shown that a discrete distribution of statistics with a large number of groups to be combined can be described by a gamma distribution. A rule for identifying the main hypothesis acceptance and rejection regions was proposed. Results. The paper presents an example of the application of statistical analysis of aggregated data on 10 groups of motor-operated valves of various NPP systems. Based on the obtained assessment of the test statistics, it is concluded that a group with a sharply deviating partial assessment of the failure rate is to be excluded from the general population. For the remaining groups, the homogeneity test was repeated. A result was obtained that allows combining the data of the 9 groups. The paper also discusses potential ways of solving the problem of assessing the dependability parameters of new NPP equipment, when operational information is not sufficient for obtaining representative estimates of dependability indicators. For such purposes, it is proposed using the empirical Bayes method, whereas the a priori distribution is obtained by aggregating data on similar items taking into account their possible heterogeneity. It is shown that the method that is focused on the construction of a priori distributions based on a likelihood function maximum can also be used for solving the homogeneity verification problems examined in this paper. Based on the proposed methods, a general approach has been developed for assessing the dependability of highly dependable NPP systems using information obtained in the course of operation of both the object of analysis (a specific NPP) and similar facilities (reference NPPs, NPPs with the same type of nuclear reactor). The method is also effective as regards probabilistic safety analysis of NPPs at the stage of their design and initial operation.

One of the key problems faced by electric power systems is the lack of regulatory documents regarding the operation, maintenance, and repair of the main equipment whose service life is beyond the standard value. Let us call them “oldtech” (OT). The difficulties come down to the lack of a method for quantifying the operational dependability and safety of OTs with subsequent benchmarking. The research-intensive, cumbersome, and time-consuming solution to this problem requires the development of appropriate automated systems. The authors examined certain features of the process for evaluating the integrated measure and benchmarking of unique facilities that do not compare to any others in terms of a specified combination of types of significant features. The recommended methods and algorithms use the technical and economic indicators of PGU-400 power units.

As an indicator characterizing such a property of reliability of a complex restored product as failure-free operation, the mean time to failure (hereinafter – t) is selected in accordance with. From the organizational and economic points of view, the most suitable for testing restored (replaceable) products, provided that the mean time to failure is subject to the exponential probability distribution law, is the NBτ plan, where N is the number of similar products being tested; τ is the operating time (the same for each product); B is the plan characteristic, meaning that the operability of the product is restored after each failure during the testing period. Traditionally, as an estimate of the mean time to failure (MTTF), the estimate t1 = Nτ/R is chosen, where R > 0 is the number of observed failures that occurred during the time τ. This estimate is biased and, in addition, if a small number of failures (of the order of several units) are observed during the testing period or are not observed, then this estimate can give a significant error due to the bias. Recently, estimates of the SNDO free from the above-mentioned shortcomings have appeared. However, these estimates are not absolutely efficient. Purpose of the work. The purpose of the work is to construct a more efficient estimate   of the SNDO for a time-limited test plan with recovery. Methods. A simple efficiency criterion   of biased estimates is used to compare SNDO estimates for efficiency. Conclusions. 1. An efficient and balanced estimate of the SNDO has been obtained. The search was carried out in the class of linear estimates in accordance with a simple efficiency criterion of biased estimates for a plan with a time-limited test and recovery of failed products. The obtained SNDO estimate is aimed at practical application in testing and operating homogeneous products for various   purposes, during which failures did not occur; 2. Of the estimates with the same efficiency, one should select the estimate with the minimum bias, and then try to balance it. 3. An estimate defined in the class of estimates θ = (Nτ/(R+1)) + Nτf(R) with a minimum bias, starting from a certain bias value down to zero, always corresponds to a large variance. Similarly, an estimate from this class with a large bias always corresponds to a smaller variance, which does not correspond to the principle of minimizing the functional on a biased estimate with a decrease in bias when searching for efficient biased estimates. This allows us to draw a broader conclusion that using variance as a characteristic of the efficiency criterion of biased estimates does not make sense in principle.

Aim. The paper aims to develop and test a methodology for quantifying the risk of equipment damage due to operator errors whose frequency depends on their work experience. Methods. The authors use applied methods of sociology (questionnaires, expert assessment) and risk analysis to obtain quantitative dependences of the risk of damage on the work experience. The above methods involve classifying the possible operator errors in the form of equipment operation violations, an expert assessment of   the frequency of such violations depending on the operator’s work experience. By decomposing the equipment we define a set of components, for which expert assessments are obtained of the risk of damage for classified operation violations. Ultimately, the risk is assessed as the product of the frequency of operator errors (classified violations of the rules) and the probability of damage to the equipment components. Results. The method was tested by collecting expert information and quantifying the risk of damage to the components of the power structures of working equipment of mining excavators in case of violations by the operator of the rules of operation. Conclusions. It is proposed to use expert assessments of the effect of an operator’s work experience on the risk of equipment damage to solve a number of applied problems, i.e., substantiation of the frequency and scope of scheduled and emergency diagnostics and maintenance operations, identification of the operator errors to be – above all else – eliminated by improving the quality of professional training.

This paper examines pandemic dynamics using running-wave-based tools and mathematical models. By extending the classic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model to include spatial dependence, we explore how disease waves spread across a population. Through mathematical analysis and inference, we derive equations for the wave velocity and assess the severity of epidemics. Our findings emphasise the crucial role of reducing the contact factor in slowing the spread of a disease and minimising its consequences. The study highlights the power of mathematical modelling in understanding and responding to pandemics, suggesting insights into effective intervention strategies.

Aim. Threats of a non-physical nature have a significant effect on the security of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). They may have the form of unlawful interference in the development and implementation of ITS. The creation of a trusted framework for the development and implementation of ITS is examined as in the case of intelligent water transportation systems (IWTS). Problems. By decree of the President of the Russian Federation, ITS, telecommunications and security of information processing are among the priority areas of scientific and technological development. ITS technologies, as well as those involved in the creation of trusted, secure system and application software are among the most important critical high technologies. The operation of ITS involves wide use of computerised systems that implement the latest information and telecommunication technologies, automated and automatic control technologies, artificial intelligence that can pose security threats. ITS are to be developed and operated in a trusted environment. Methods. The paper used the methodology for ensuring the security of IWTS, development of secure hardware and software platforms for secure automated systems, methods of system analysis, dependability theory, information protection, and law. Results. The paper defines the problem of creating a trusted framework for the development and implementation of IWTS, the applicable terminology is developed. The author examined the effect of IWTS on the security of critical information infrastructure (CII) and national security, developed a model of relationships between the IWTS security domains taking into account threats of physical and non-physical origin. Examples of computer incidents within IWTS that caused consequences at the national and international levels are given. The composition of the IWTS facilities attributed to CII is defined, critical processes implemented by standard CII facilities as part of the IWTS are set forth. The author lists conceptual problems of IWTS security, defines the principles of creating a trusted framework for the development and implementation of IWTS. Conclusion. Ensuring the security of IWTS against modern threats requires solving a number of problems associated with the creation of a trusted framework for the development and implementation of IWTS. For the purpose of improving the timeliness and quality of their solution, the paper proposes an intuitive terminology that reflects the subject area and helps finding a common understanding of the security domain by experts from various industries. IWTS facilities have an effect on CII security and national security in general. That is taken into account in the model of relationships between IWTS security domains, demonstrated using cases of computer incidents within IWTS that caused consequences at the national and international level. Given the above, the paper lists IWTS facilities attributed to CII and sets forth examples of critical processes implemented by standard CII facilities as part of the IWTS. The defined list of conceptual IWTS security problems take into account the growing landscape of IWTS security threats that includes insecure software, hardware and software platforms, software and hardware systems and emerging technologies. When developing the principles for the creation of a trusted IWTS development and implementation framework, the author took into account the best practice of implementing the methodology for creating national secure hardware and software platforms of CII facilities that enables the creation of secure automated systems for various applications that are based on domestically-developed solutions. The examined matters are of a systemic nature, which allows using the findings in the development and implementation of ITS in other modes of transportation.

Despite the fact that modern artificial intelligence technologies are largely based on machine learning, machine learning algorithms themselves are not a strategy. We will define a strategy as a complete description of how a system will behave under all possible circumstances. Game theory appears to be the most promising tool that allows autonomous systems to make effective decisions when managing corporations. Given the variety of problems faced by boards of directors, game theory that has found application in economics, political science, pure mathematics, psychology, sociology, marketing and finance, potentially enables an autonomous artificial intelligence system based on effective strategy simulation. If the development of ethical and legitimate autonomous AI systems is mandatory, some dilemmas of game theory itself either become nonexistent or change their meaning in the context of game theory.

Aim. To improve the adequacy of specifications transmitted within safety-critical process automation systems. Methods. Integration of deep packet inspection technology into the operation of an open communications platform with a uniform architecture. The application of such a platform in industrial networks is defined by the requirements of the Russian standards as regards the implementation of messaging traffic. The paper employed   an approach that is based on the statistical analysis of existing threats to the use of software technologies and single interfaces as part of process automation tools. Content-based deep packet inspection allowed developing an algorithm for accumulating statistical data that define the efficiency of traffic regulation and filtering. Using the above technology along with the proposed method for calculating risks affecting automation systems would allow taking into account the technological and operational aspects of the external factors. Results. It was shown that compliance with the proposed regulatory requirements, as well as provisions defining the stability of transactions will allow Internet providers visualising existing traffic, identifying its bottlenecks, algorithmising the use of network resources, including its effect on network performance and compatibility with various protocols. Based on the results of deep packet inspection, the paper examined the feasibility of effective analysis of packet content   and metadata. An algorithm was developed for deep packet inspection that demonstrates capturing, analysis, and processing of network traffic along with a diagram of the allocation of the means and facilities implementing the algorithm in a network of open distributed systems that includes integration points between industrial controllers, servers, and clients, as well as cloud services. The diagram helps visualising the integration of deep packet inspection technology at all levels of interaction between the elements of process automation systems. To control the risk dynamics, an algorithm was proposed that takes into account the evolution of   threats to each of the elements, as well as building countermeasures within process automation systems. The characteristics of the facilities that represent such countermeasures to external threats are defined by the compliance of the transmitted data packets with the requirements that define the protocol specifications of an open platform server. The obtained information helps administrators inspect traffic, identify anomalies and plan the capacity of communication channels within the examined process automation systems. The above approach to building a cyber threat detection framework is a strategic basis for ensuring the security of critical applications. Conclusions. Given the demand for ensuring the safety of process automation systems, the introduction of requirements defining the deep packet inspection process into Russian digital manufacturing standards would be a significant step towards improving the adequacy of specifications transmitted within industrial networks in the face of growing cyber threats.