On the choice of methods for estimating statistical parameters of system component reliability for use in probabilistic safety analysis
https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2025-25-4-17-28
Abstract
Aim. To analyse the factors that may affect the choice of the method(s) for assessing the failure rate of system components when using the results for reliability analysis and probabilistic safety analysis. Methods. The paper uses methods of mathematical analysis, probability theory. Results. The paper presents the results of applying a number of methods to a sample of N = 23 (groups) and samples of N = 12 and N = 6. Samples N = 12 and N = 6 are made up of a static series of the initial sample (N = 23) according to the following rule adopted for the purpose of demonstrating the method: for N = 12, all even, for N = 6, every 4th, that' ensured the “similarity” of the samples. Two variants, i.e. z = 0, t = 11.2 and z = 4, t = 11.2, were considered as specific data. Conclusions. The paper presents a brief overview of the practical methods for assessing the failure rate characteristics of a nuclear power unit’s system components. The authors highlight the specific features of the presented approaches, provide recommendations for their application in the preparation of input data for analysis. For the case of no failures in a group, it is recommended using the Jeffreys noninformative method. Relibaility analysis should use the method of moments, the V.B. Morozov’s method and/or the bootstrap method.
About the Authors
O. V. Goriunov
JSC REIN Engineering
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Goryunov, Oleg V., Candidate of Technical Sciences, Head of the department
45E Vyborgskaya nab., Saint Petersburg, 194044
I. B. Kuzmina
JSC REIN Engineering
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Kuzmina, Irina B., expert, Candidate of Technical Sciences
115114, Moscow, Letnikovskaya str., 10, building 5
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Review
For citations:
Goriunov O.V., Kuzmina I.B. On the choice of methods for estimating statistical parameters of system component reliability for use in probabilistic safety analysis. Dependability. 2025;25(4):17-28. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2025-25-4-17-28
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ISSN 1729-2646 (Print)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
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