Dependability of local power systems based on autonomous generation units

Aim. The paper aims to create and verify methods for predicting the dependability of autonomous power supply to local low-power consumers. Methods. The work uses simulation tools, i.e., computational experiment for predicting the dependability and safe service life of autonomous cluster distributed energy networks that include various power generation installations, power transmission lines and an automated self-regulation system for the purpose of diversifying the risks of failure. Results. Using methods of probabilistic analysis of technical system safety, the dependability of power supply is predicted in terms of possible energy network failures and threats to the life of consumers. The problem can be solved by simulating and predicting the moment of failure of a power network, i.e., critical violation of design conditions, accident, etc. This scenario allows – for long periods of operation – simulating failure situations due to degradation and destruction of elements, units, power lines, as well as failures under multidimensional uncertainty of prediction of dependability and quality of power supply. The key output of simulation is a set of recommendations to ensure energy security. The paper presents simulated dependability indicators, analysis of the effect of structural design solutions underlying a distributed energy network on the dependability and energy security. Conclusion. The use of computational experiments and results of power supply dependability simulation as part of predicting probabilistic indicators of failures of equipment and elements of cluster energy networks, identifying their consequences for the energy security of sparsely populated and remote locations lays the foundation for quality management of energy networks. Additionally, in the future, additional causes and initial events may be included in the model for the purpose of studying the facts of failures. For instance, such causes as uneven generation using renewable sources, finite fuel supply for conventional generation sources, reliability of the power grid personnel. The proposed approach allows verifying promising new energy network design solutions, for example, including energy storage systems into a distributed energy network that – at various points in time – may be either “generators” or “consumers”. Simulation of local energy networks is of practical interest and is important for improving their consumer quality, resistance to hazardous environmental effects.

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