Markov reliability model of a wing farm
https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2023-23-3-28-37
Abstract
A Markov model of wind farm reliability based on the example of the station on the island of Anholt, Denmark, is constructed. Reliability indexes of equipment of one turbine as a function of wind velocity are calculated. Based on hourly measurements of wind speed and electricity consumption, the durations of periods of satisfied and unsatisfied demand are estimated. It is found that the distributions of these periods can be approximated by a mixture of exponential distributions. The plant operation process is approximated by a Markov process with 5 states and continuous time. As a result, estimates of non-stationary and stationary probabilities of electricity demand being met by wind power are obtained.
About the Author
V. Yu. Itkin
Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Viсtor Yu. Itkin - Candidate of Engineering, Associate Professor,
Senior Lecturer, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Modelling,
65 Leningradsky Prospekt, Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Itkin V.Yu. Markov reliability model of a wing farm. Dependability. 2023;23(3):28-37. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2023-23-3-28-37
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ISSN 1729-2646 (Print)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
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