Predicting power system reliability and outage duration including emergency response
https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2020-20-3-3-14
Abstract
Abstract. Aim. Enable prediction and planning for large-scale unprecedented power outages of importance for emergency planning and national response actions. Predict outage probability, duration and restoration using a theoretical framework that is applicable globally. Methods. Data have been collected for power losses and outage duration for a wide range of events in Belgium, Canada, Eire, France, Japan, Sweden, New Zealand and USA. A new theory and correlation is given for the probability of large regional power losses of up to nearly 50,000 MW(e) without additional infrastructure or grid damage. For severe and rare events with damage (major floods, fire, ice storms, hurricanes etc.) the outages are longer and the restoration probability depends on the degree of difficulty that limits access and restoration. The dynamic reliability requirements for emergency back-up power and pumping systems are derived, and demonstrated using the flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina and of the Fukushima nuclear reactors by a tsunami. Conclusions. Explicit expressions have been given and validated for the probability and duration for the full range from “normal” large power losses to extended outages due to rare and more severe events with access and repair difficulty.
About the Author
R. B. DuffeyUnited States
Romney B. Duffey, Ph.D, B.Sc., former chair of ASME nuclear division Idaho Falls
Idaho
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Review
For citations:
Duffey R.B. Predicting power system reliability and outage duration including emergency response. Dependability. 2020;20(3):3-14. https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2020-20-3-3-14
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ISSN 1729-2646 (Print)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
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