On the nature of risk in the safety management of structurally complex systems

Aim. In the general case, a risk-oriented approach encompasses probabilistic methods of emergency processes and events simulation as well as deterministic methods. The use of probabilistic and deterministic estimations has been the focus of research aiming to improve safety and operational procedures. However, the experience of using probabilistic analysis only (essentially, one-criterium tool) has shown that this approach does not encompass all the required aspects of safety. The aim of the paper is to introduce (update) the definitions of the very concepts of “analysis” and “synthesis” as regards the risks for the purpose of research of safety of structurally complex systems (SCS) and design of systems for monitoring hazards and threats to their stable development thereof.

Method. The paper examines – from the point of view of systems science – the method of analysis and synthesis of risks as a development tool of advanced systems for monitoring SCS safety threats. The paper compares the primary current concepts of risk management in SCS and has shown that they should be developed and improved. A type of risk functionality is proposed that allows defining a safety solution by the value of mathematical expectation of losses, with appropriate corrections taken into account.

Result. The concept of “risks synthesis” is introduced as a scientific tool integrated with analysis that takes into consideration the existing connections between the elements of considered SCS in terms of a whole system in its entirety. Principles are formulated for the collection of comprehensive sets of data required for decision-making.

Conclusion. The proposed approach paves the way for the development of the method of risks synthesis and suggests the development of advanced expert systems to support decision-making regarding the safety of SCS as multifunctional and multilevel systems intended for both recording and analysis of each individual case (event), and prediction of trends and preparation of prevention measures as necessary.

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