EMPERICAL TECHNIQUE OF FORECASTING OF LOADED MULTI-ELEMENT SYSTEM COLLAPSE
https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2013-0-3-55-75
Abstract
The paper presents a technique of lifetime reliability estimation for a loaded multi-element system, with the estimation being conducted during the failure of the system. The failure process is considered as quasistatic, and as a model example, the Daniels fiber bundle model is used.
The method is based on statistical analysis of the burst sequence, where burst is a simultaneous failure of a number of elements under current total load (package of destructions). As the destructions progresses, we register maximum frequencies for bursts of successive sizes (i.e., single, double etc.). This data is used (via “moving window” averaging technique) for the improvement of the statistical estimate of the time remaining to the avalanche and full system collapse.
Computer simulation is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure. A comparison of the approach proposed with ones previously suggested by other researchers is presented, and the benefits of the new technique are shown.
About the Author
D. D. Onischenko
Programmer-biostatistician
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Parexel International
(RUS) Ltd.
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Review
For citations:
Onischenko D.D. EMPERICAL TECHNIQUE OF FORECASTING OF LOADED MULTI-ELEMENT SYSTEM COLLAPSE. Dependability. 2013;(3):55-75. https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2013-0-3-55-75
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ISSN 1729-2646 (Print)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
ISSN 2500-3909 (Online)
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