Theoretical modeling of dependability resources of flight crews in commercial aviation

The paper develops theoretical models of dependability of commercial aviation (CA) flight crews based on the resource method of designing organizational social objects. The aim was to provide an objective description of flight crew activity. Formal models of crew composition were constructed. Definitions of dependability of intense profession members are presented using the example of CA crews. The competitive environment of the open global air transportation market is leveled against the standardization of airline activities and primary object of aviation, i.e. CA pilot and flight crew. Air disasters of the last few decades highlight the primary causes, i.e. professional properties deficiency in pilots and excessive workload of flight crews in CA operations. This situation is caused by not only the pressure of the business environment, but also by the critical insufficiency of scientifically grounded methods of managing flight operations in terms of the human component. The paper developed theoretical models of dependability of flight crews based on classical logic and resource method of designing organizational social objects of the transportation industry (airline). The essence of the problem. In commonly known literature there still is no theoretical framework, formal models that could be used for calculation and management of dependability of activities. Crew resources are researched in terms of dependability and efficiency. In general, crew dependability is understood as the sum of dependabilities of crew members for the completion of the assigned tasks. The dependability depends on the composition of specialized skills and individual qualifications of the crew members. The efficiency is the result of three components: communications, decisions, delegation. These interactions can be formal and informal. The scientific substantiation and definition of the parameters of the crew’s assignment in terms of the estimated dependability and efficiency parameters are the solution of the problem. Problem formalization. In order to formalize the problem of objective description of flight crew activity, the crew may be considered as a class of individuals. The logic of classes (sets) uses the class-forming operator C, for “class”, predicate of inclusion of individuals into class Î, a binary predicate, predicate of inclusion of a class into a class. In order for a class to exist it suffices for it to be formed out of the range of values of term t. Class generation principles are expressed in the following axioms: Each element of a class can be chosen regardless of the class formation, the independence principle. A class of individuals exists (does not exist) if it is formed (not formed) in accordance with the definition of class formation and formation axioms. Subsequent statement of the problem must be directed in detail, specific solutions for the development of models suitable for calculation and management of flight operation. Thus, the development of the theoretical essence of the composition and size of crew is a relevant problem and can be solved based on classical logic, managerial control theory, information theory.

1. Air Code of the Russian Federation dd 19.03.1997 no. 60-FZ (ed. 18.07.2006 no. 114-FZ) [in Russian].

2. Plotnikov NI. Resursy pilota. Nadiozhnost. Monografia [Pilot’s resources. Dependability. [A monograph]. Novosibirsk: Research project center AviaManager; 2013 [in Russian].

3. Plotnikov NI. Razdel 3. Metod otsenki riskov dlya bezopasnosti poletov aviakompanii na osnove upravleniya i prognoza resursov pilota. [Section 3. A method for evaluating the air safety risks of airlines based on pilot resources management and prediction]. In: Avtomatizirovannaya sistema prognozirovaniya i predotvrashcheniya aviatsionnykh proisshestviy pri organizatsii i proizvodstve vozdushnykh perevozok. Promezhutochny etap no. 4: Adaptatsiya razrabotannykh algoritmov i programmnykh sredstv AS [Automated system for prediction and prevention of air accidents in prganization and perfromance of air transportation. Intermediate stage 4: Adaptation of developed AS algorithms and programs]. Science and engineering report, 2010-218-02-068, official registration no. 01201150118 dd 12.01.2011, identification no. 194. Ulianovsk; 2012: 154-238, 1048-1258 [in Russian].

4. Wiener EL, Kanki BG, Helmreich RL. Cockpit Resource Management. New York: Academic Press; 1993.

5. Plotnikov NI. Resursy bezopasnosti transportnykh kompleksov. Monografia [Transportation systems safety resources. A monograph]. Novosibirsk: Research project center AviaManager; 2013 [in Russian].

6. Plotnikov NI.Osnovaniya teorii nadezhnosti cheloveka-operatora (pilota) [The bases of human operator (pilot) dependability theory]. Dependability 2015;2(53):94-97.

7. Zinoviev AA. Logika naouki [The logic of science]. Moscow: Mysl; 1971 [in Russian].

8. <https://ru.wikipedia.org/>

9. Oushakov DN, editor. Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language. Vol. 4. Мoscow: Gosudarstvenny Institut Sovietskaya entsiklopedia; OGIZ; Gosudarstvennoye izdatelstvo inostrabnnykh i natsinalnykh slov; 1935-1940 [in Russian].

10. Novikov DA. Teoriya upravleniya organizatsionnymi sistemami [Theory of management systems control]. 2nd edition. Мoscow: Fizmatlit; 2007 [in Russian].

11. Lossky NO. Logika [Logic]. Obelisk; 1923 [in Russian].

12. Getmanova AD. Ouchebnik po logike [Logic textbook]. 2nd edition. Moscow: Vlados; 1995 [in Russian].

13. Goncharov SS, Yershov YuL, Samokhvalov KF. Vvedenie v logiku i metodologiyu naouki [Introduction into the logic and methodology of science]. Moscow: Interpraks, Novosibirsk: RAS SB Institute of Mathematics; 1994 [in Russian].

14. Books by the author of this paper can be downloaded at: http://aviam.org/index.php/layout/library