Method for risk evaluation of functional instability of hardware and software systems under external information technology interference

The aim of the article is to develop a method that would allow for a quantitative evaluation of stability risks of hardware and software systems under simulated information technology interference and simulation of real management process cycle. The article shows the relevance and importance of the methods for risk evaluation of hardware and software systems stability in the context of targeted and coordinated information technology interference. Information technology interference is understood as targeted and coordinated hardware and software, as well as software actions aimed at temporary disruption of operation or logical defeat of hardware and software systems. Successful information technology interference is conditioned by the presence of vulnerabilities in the hardware and software systems that include IP and MAC addresses and communication equipment ports available to the intruder. The method presented in the article is based on the following: risk evaluation is performed using a test bed or active facilities with the involvement of respectively a fixed and portable information technology measures simulation system. The risk of destabilization of hardware and software systems is evaluated experimentally as the combination of frequency and consequences of successful information technology interference. The preliminary risk evaluation allows choosing the solution for information protection in order to eliminate potential vulnerabilities. The residual risk is evaluated based on the ability of hardware and software systems to eliminate the consequences of information technology interference through various inbuilt resilience features. The research resulted in the proposed method of evaluation hardware and software system security risks under information technology interference as a logical sequence of steps: risk analysis of information technology interference; identification of vulnerabilities, simulation of system operation processes under information technology interference at the trial facility; selection of the best information protection and system fault tolerance facilities; preliminary an final evaluation of system stability risks. As part of the method, probability and temporal indicators of hardware and software systems stability risk evaluation were developed that enable analysis of recovery from threats of combined information technology interference, selection of rational information protection and fault tolerance measures. As part of the method, it is proposed to use a cubic analysis scheme of elimination of vulnerabilities of critical elements of hardware and software systems that allows identifying the levels of tolerable risk and levels of reference model of interaction of open systems required for elimination of vulnerability subject to the frequency of information technology interference. Additionally, a certificate of evaluation of stability risks of hardware and software systems subject to the frequency of successful interferences was developed. In the conclusion it is noted that the developed method allows using the knowledge regarding potential vulnerabilities and experimental studies to identify the probabilistic values of security risks in order to determine the most hazardous threats and adoption of respective information protection measures.

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