sustainНадежностьDependability1729-26462500-3909RAMS Journal Limited liability company10.21683/1729-2646-2023-23-3-28-37sustain-541Research ArticleСИСТЕМНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ В ЗАДАЧАХ НАДЕЖНОСТИ И БЕЗОПАСНОСТИSYSTEM ANALYSIS IN DEPENDABILITY AND SAFETYМарковская модель надежности ветроэлектростанцииMarkov reliability model of a wing farmИткинВ. Ю.ItkinV. Yu.

Иткин Виктор Юрьевич – кандидат технических наук, доцент;

доцент кафедры ПМ и КМ, 

Ленинский пр-т, 65, Москва

Viсtor Yu. Itkin - Candidate of Engineering, Associate Professor,

Senior Lecturer, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Modelling,

65 Leningradsky Prospekt, Moscow

itkin.v@gubkin.ruРГУ нефти и газа (НИУ) имени И.М. ГубкинаРоссияGubkin Russian State University of Oil and GasRussian Federation2023220820232332837Copyright © Иткин В.Ю., 20232023Иткин В.Ю.Itkin V.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.dependability.ru/jour/article/view/541

Построена марковская модель надежности ветровой электростанции на примере станции на острове Анхольт, Дания. Вычислены показатели надежности оборудования одной турбины как функции скорости ветра. На основании часовых измерений скорости ветра и объема потребленной электроэнергии оценены длительности периодов удовлетворенного и неудовлетворенного спроса. Установлено, что распределения этих периодов можно приблизить смесью экспоненциальных распределений. Процесс функционирования станции приближается марковским процессом с 5-ю состояниями и непрерывным временем. В итоге получены оценки нестационарной и стационарной вероятностей того, что спрос на электроэнергию будет удовлетворен за счет энергии ветра.

A Markov model of wind farm reliability based on the example of the station on the island of Anholt, Denmark, is constructed. Reliability indexes of equipment of one turbine as a function of wind velocity are calculated. Based on hourly measurements of wind speed and electricity consumption, the durations of periods of satisfied and unsatisfied demand are estimated. It is found that the distributions of these periods can be approximated by a mixture of exponential distributions. The plant operation process is approximated by a Markov process with 5 states and continuous time. As a result, estimates of non-stationary and stationary probabilities of electricity demand being met by wind power are obtained.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.