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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">sustain</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Надежность</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Dependability</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1729-2646</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2500-3909</issn><publisher><publisher-name>RAMS Journal Limited liability company</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21683/1729-2646-2020-20-3-3-14</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">sustain-380</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>СТРУКТУРНАЯ НАДЕЖНОСТЬ. ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY. THE THEORY AND PRACTICE</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогнозирование надежности энергетической системы и продолжительности сбоев, включая нештатные ситуации</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Predicting power system reliability and outage duration including emergency response</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Даффи</surname><given-names>Р. Б.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Duffey</surname><given-names>R. B.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ромни Б. Даффи – доктор философии, бакалавр, бывший председатель подразделения атомной энергетики Американского общества инженеров-механиков Айдахо</p><p>Айдахо-Фолс</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Romney B. Duffey, Ph.D, B.Sc., former chair of ASME nuclear division Idaho Falls</p><p>Idaho</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">duffeyrb@gmail.com</email></contrib></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>09</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>20</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>3</fpage><lpage>14</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Даффи Р.Б., 2020</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Даффи Р.Б.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Duffey R.B.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.dependability.ru/jour/article/view/380">https://www.dependability.ru/jour/article/view/380</self-uri><abstract/><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"/><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>отключение электроэнергии</kwd><kwd>сбои</kwd><kwd>вероятность восстановления</kwd><kwd>способность к восстановлению</kwd><kwd>реагирование на чрезвычайную ситуацию</kwd><kwd>теория</kwd><kwd>стихийные бедствия</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Electricity outages</kwd><kwd>blackouts</kwd><kwd>restoration probability</kwd><kwd>resilience</kwd><kwd>emergency response</kwd><kwd>theory</kwd><kwd>disasters</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Surviving a catastrophic power outage, President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council, Washington, DC. 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